NAVIGATING IN THE INFORMATION BATTLEFIELD

In an era where global military spending has skyrocketed to a staggering $2.7 trillion and more than 50 armed conflicts rage, the quest for peace is forgotten. With over two billion people, a quarter of humanity, living in conflict-affected areas, the need for clear, credible information has never been more critical.

War seeks to hide human rights violations, deaths, and the true extent of suffering and destruction. AI tools, major search engines, and social media cannot be relied on to expose corruption or demand accountability from weapons contractors. So, human-curated resources play a vital role. Non-profit initiatives compile resources on conflict, military, nuclear weapons and peaceful alternatives. The mainstream media rarely covers the dealings of arms manufacturers, traders, and their investors. The arms industry in 2023 was valued at over $632 billion. This highly lucrative trade leads to longer and deadlier conflicts, grave human rights abuses, and siphons public funds from essential social, health, and environmental budgets.

Let’s learn from the successes of pacifists and nonviolent campaigns, replicate their strategies, and use peace education to build tolerance, compassion, and kindness.

LET’S USE GREEN BONDS

Accelerate everything. Everywhere. All at once. Then find more things to accelerate. Clean, renewable energy systems will win the fight against fossil fuels. Fossil fuels as the dominant energy source will not last my lifetime (and I’m not a young man). Markets will see to that now, not policy.

That doesn’t mean we’ve solved climate. Instead, we continue to accelerate in the wrong direction. It’s too late for the inevitable decline of fossil energy to reduce climate risk to manageable levels.The role of climate policy is now to accelerate the inevitable.

In the early 2000s, I worked on a Green Bond policy initiative as an Action Canada fellow. Though a little dated, it applies today – with a tweak or two. Given Prime Minister Carney’s revival of Sustainability Bonds, it’s time to put it out there again.

It’s a simple idea – a Victory Bond for climate – that gives the public a way to invest in our collective security with a federal backstop. People buy gov-backed bonds. That low-cost capital is low-cost debt for low-carbon energy projects. But there’s important nuance today.

There was once a need to accelerate deployment of existing clean technologies that deliver immediate emission reductions. But that ship has sailed. The focus now should be on providing market pull for next-generation higher-risk technologies that can open up new market segments. If you’re a fan of nuclear, look to SMRs, or carbon capture. There are lots of Canadian startups itching to get on the field. The long-term benefit? Build a Canadian renewable energy technology economy to export next-generation cleantech globally.

This is not a bond backed by government and deployed by the private sector -an arms-length private financial institution, overseen by a board of private sector experts in energy and government representatives. Compensation can be geared toward the unambiguous efficiency measure of cost to the government per tonne of emissions reduction.

Risk (primarily defaulted loans) is mitigated through sound governance and oversight, a limited bond issue size, capital matching from borrowers and liens on assets.

There are now some great programs in place to support next-gen cleantech – in particular the Canada Growth Fund (CGF): the savviest program I’ve seen in Canada. The Green Bond rewards CGF (and others) for taking the risk.

Heck – if the private sector saw that low-cost project finance on the horizon, maybe all those pension funds who currently refuse might finally play ball.

The most significant cost exposure to the government is defaulted loans. Liability appears as a contingent liability, represented by a percentage of the total bond issue. Our upper-bound estimate back then was a total cost to the government capped at 25% of the bond issue, but the actual rate should be much lower, maybe 10%. If you translate that to a cost per tonne of CO2, it’s estimated at between $1 – $12.88 (obviously a lot assumptions and detail.

As an investment, it’s lousy. But that’s not the point. As a cost of emissions reduction, it beats any government program I’ve seen! And that’s to say nothing of the economic upside of export-driven nascent Canadian global champions. Green Bonds. What’s old is new again.